Thursday, November 12, 2009

D2 state meet preview

The D2 state meet is Friday night; here's a preview of what to look for in what figures to be a very close team competition.

-- Can DeForest make it four in a row? The Norskies have won the last three state championships; last year they overwhelmed the field with 15 individual qualifiers and three solid relays. This year figures to be more like 2006, when five teams finished within 33 points of each other and the Norskies pulled it out in the very last event by winning the 400 free relay. DeForest has nine individual qualifiers, along with all three relays, but only sophomore Chelsea Statz earned a top seed for the team (100 free). Still, this is a squad filled with veteran swimmers who know the pressures of the state meet, and DeForest -- which was posting some fair-to-middling times mid-season -- always seems to swim well this time of year. With three teams (Sturgeon Bay/Sevastopol, DeForest and Whitefish Bay) seeded within six points of each other for the top spot (see: http://wiscswim.blogspot.com/2009/11/d1-and-d2-meets-seeded.html ), this meet is way too close to call. But DeForest will certainly be in the mix, and has its four very best swimmers -- Statz and fellow sophomore Leah Winckler, junior Casey Wolter, and senior Lindsey Verhulst -- slated to swim the meet-ending 400 free relay. Shades of 2006? We'll find out.

-- Can Sturgeon Bay/Sevastopol sprint its way to the state championship? The Clippers are loaded in the sprints, with three qualifiers each in the 50 and 100 frees, a 200 free relay that's already under the state-record time in the event, a second-seeded 200 medley relay, and a 400 free relay that earned a #5 seed. Sisters Sierra and Savanna Townsend will lead a squad looking for a bit of redemption after last year, when SB/S came to the Natatorium with high hopes but performed below expectations. Coach Mike McHuhugh is making sure one thing is changed this year; all of the Clippers will be wearing the fastest suits available for the state meet."I just don't think you can compete without them, so we're going to bite the bullet and spend the money to get them," McHugh told the Door County Advocate. "Whoever's going to show up at state without a suit is going to be at a distinct disadvantage. I really think the speed suits make a massive difference. We were primed last year and swam well, but without speed suits it was like going to a gunfight with a knife. We were unable to beat the suit last year. We just can't take that hit again."

-- Can Whitefish Bay senior Maggie Smith finally win an individual state title, and in doing so lead her team to a state title? Whitefish Bay has traditionally been one of the strongest girls programs in the state, but it's never won a state title. The Blue Dukes finished as runner-up in 2006 and 2007. Smith won a gold medal on that 2006 team as a freshman, when she anchored a 200 free relay that won by just .04 seconds. But she's been shut out since, finishing as runner-up the past two years in the 50 free. She's got the top seed in the 50 free this year, and in a true display of taking one for the team, gave up the 100 free (where she's finished T-5th and 3rd the past two state meets) to anchor all three of the Blue Dukes' state-qualifying relays. The move paid off, as Whitefish Bay earned the top seed in both the medley and 400 free relays. The Blue Dukes swam as well or better than any D2 team in the state at last week's sectionals; can they bring it again?

-- Can Milton senior Jennah Haney cap her wonderful high school career with two individual titles? If she does, will it be enough to take her team to the D2 state title? Haney is seeded 1st in the 200 IM, where she'll be up against two-time defending champion Clare Chamberlain of Shorewood, and 2nd in the 100 breaststroke -- the event she won her first two years at state. Haney is the team elder on a squad that depends heavily on freshmen and sophomores; she'll also play a key role on two of Milton's three state-qualifying relays. Milton is seeded to finish 4th at the state meet, but close enough to the top teams that a big night from Haney could mean a move up.

-- Can Brookfield Academy's Kelsey Hojan-Clark chase down the state records she just missed last year? The defending champion in both the 200 and 500 free, Hojan-Clark missed state records last year by a third-of-a-second (200 free) and a quarter-of-a-second (500 free). Notable last year was that Hojan-Clark -- although wearing a full-body suit -- eschewed the controversial blue70 suit popular with so many swimmers at last year's state meet that prompted controversy and the eventual restrictions on suits for this season. She'll be chased by some top talent, including McFarland's Chloe Bartuska and Shorewood's Elli Sellinger in the 200, and Chamberlain and Wolter in the 500.

-- Could the race for the 100 butterfly be any closer? The three top seeds -- Elkhorn's Terrin Seaver, Sauk Prairie's Alison Meng, and Monona Grove's Kelsey Millin -- are collectively separated by a mere .07 seconds on their seed times. The field also includes top butterfliers like DeForest's Winckler and Berlin/Green Lake's Siri Smits, as well as last year's runner-up -- Plymouth's Kate Criter -- swimming out of lane 4 in the first heat.

-- One of the night's most intriguing races looks to be the 100 backstroke. Milton freshman Katelyn Holmquist comes in with the top seed, but she'll be bracketed in the final heat by a bevy of state meet veterans, including defending champ Smits, who last year set a D2 state record (55.83) with a time so fast it would've won last year's D1 title. Two other swimmers loom in outside lanes -- Grafton's Sadie Nenning in lane 1, last year's runner-up who won this race at state in 2006 and 2007, and in lane 7 Ashwaubenon's Erika Pliner, who has moved down from D1. At last year's D1 state meet, Pliner cut an amazing 3.13 seconds off her sectional seed time to finish 3rd at state with a time of 58.00.

-- They're baaaack. The best race at last year's state meet was the 100 breaststroke, where five swimmers broke the existing state record. All of them return -- first-place finisher Criter, Haney, Waukesha Catholic Memorial's Anna Meinholz, McFarland's Stirling Smith, and Delavan-Darien's Emily McClellan. McClellan, who finished 5th last year at state after breaking the state record out of the first heat, comes in as the favorite. She's beaten Haney, who has the #2 seed, three times this season in the event, including at last week's sectional meet. The breaststroke is particularly loaded this year, as 10 swimmers come in seeded under 1:10.00.

-- Finally, how fast will this year's meet be? Some have suggested not as fast as last year, which saw three state records fall and the utilization by numerous swimmers of the now-banned full-body suits. But remember this -- the meet features seven swimmers who have won individual state titles. Sturgeon Bay/Sevastopol has already swum a time in the 200 free relay more than half-a-second below the state record in the event. And the remarkable closeness of the meet suggests that no one will be holding back on "safe" relay starts, since all of the top teams competing for the state title will be battling each other in the relays. Expect another very fast meet.

15 comments:

Anonymous said...

The meet last year, although impacted by the suits, was not really dominated by them, in the way that the boys meet, and the USAS and FINA meets were the rest of the year. While the 100 breast was unusual, there were a number of long standing records that survived the "rubber suit era". I don't think we'll see a big drop off in speed this year, although some individuals may feel it more than others.

wave said...

I'm afraid the SB coach is 1 year behind on his purchase of new suits. As usual it will come down to a teams ability to drop time from sectionals to state. I believe all the mentioned teams other than SB wore the high tech suits at sectionals as well which means the times came from a taper and not as much the suit. I agree, the 100 breast was a very surreal finish. I think the best move so far has been WFB placing Smith in 3 relays. This may end up being the coaching move of the year.

Phil McDade said...

As for times and last year's D2 meet -- every event save for three was won with a faster time in '08 than in '07, some dramatically lower (200/500 frees, 400 free relay, medley relay, 200 IM, 100 back, and of course the breaststroke). The only ones that weren't were the 50/100 frees (won in '07 in record time by a once-a-generation swimmer in Thompson) and 100 fly (won by Lennertz, a collegiate D1 swimmer who won it 4 years in a row). Three state records in '08, including one broken by five swimmers.

To me, that's pretty good anecdotal evidence that the now-banned suits made a difference last year.

I'll have to go back and check D1 girls as well as boys state to make a similar comparison. Off the top of my head, two D1 boys records -- 200/500 frees (one of those with no body suit!), and one D2 boys record (McFarland's 400 free relay).

Anonymous said...

I haven't looked at the times for state that closely, but one of the coaches put up an analysis of the qualifying times since about 1990. The trend line is generally down, with some bumps here and there. Last years times tended be a little faster than this year, but not all, and not by a lot. While I think the suits had an impact, I don't think it was, for example like FINA world champs in Rome, where the suits dominated to the point of world records in almost every event. And I think we will see Phil's prediction of multiple swimmers under 5:00 minutes in the D1 500 free. So, final answer, probably a little slower, but not "OMG what happened type of slower".

Anonymous said...

The SB coach also put one of their top swimmers-Rabas in three relays, I think that qualifies as one of the best coaching moves of the year. Without her they probably wouldn't have got three relays in. Also, with a taper at sectionals or without, SB will most likely drop times with the new suits- that everyone else already had at sectionals.

Anonymous said...

The new suits SB is talking about purchasing aren't going to make the difference they did last year, pretty much all the top racing suits are even.

Anonymous said...

they may not make the difference they did last year, but they have the ability to make the difference needed this year

Phil McDade said...

Here's SV/S coach McHugh on Rabas swimming on three relays and bypassing the 200 IM:

The Clippers finished third in the team standings, 14 points behind champion Whitefish Bay and five behind runner-up Shorewood. McHugh said the Clippers could have won the title, but he took Rabas out of the 200 individual medley and put her in the 400 freestyle relay.

"I knew we would give up the title by doing that," said McHugh. "But we got a faster 400 relay through to state that should help us do better there."

wave said...

Wow, I don't know much about Rabas but I'm not sure if she is in the same league as Smith from WFB. I did some research and the fastest 200 IM time I could find for Rabas was 2:21 which would not have qualified for state and my guess is would not have made up the 14 points at sectionals. I will be interested to see the splits of Smith and Rabas. Smith made a major sacrifice for the team and that type of sacrifice goes a long ways in showing leadership at a big meet. Maybe had SB put Hogan or a Townsend sister in 3 relays I might agree.

Anonymous said...

One other factor that can't be overlooked is health. A team can have their chances changed significantly if one or more of the swimmers comes down with one of the flu viruses going around.

One only needs to think back a couple of weeks when football teams were forfeiting games because they couldn't field a team.

Anonymous said...

Rabas' best time in the 200 Im is around a 2:17 and she surely could have dropped at sectionals. Her splits are already at a 24 in the 200 free relay and a 28 in the medley back she also swam the 400 free relay for her first time at sectionals, splitting a low 55 compared to the 1:00 that was originally in the relay

Phil McDade said...

My own two cents on the Sturgeon Bay/Sevastopol relay line-up:

They really had to put Sierra Townsend on the medley, to get it seeded high, because she's their best breaststroker, by a fair amount. And Rabas is their next best backstroker, after Sierra, and Trelka is their best flier. So then you have the anchor, and Hogan's pretty darn good, and saves Savanna Townsend for both free relays.

That 200 free relay of Sierra, Rabas, Trelka and Savanna has been together all season long, with great times, and the clear favorite for 1st place tonight, so I don't know how you justify breaking it up. So that leaves the 400 free relay, and I think you can make a pretty good argument that adding Rabas to it provides SB/S with the potential for more points than taking her off of it and having her (possibly) qualify for the 200 IM. I don't think it would be worth it to take either of the Townsends out of their individual events, and even though SB/S has six individual qualifiers in the first, slower heat, they are all in the inside four lanes with some potential to move up. They got nine individual entries through, tied for DeForest for the most in the meet, and their three relays are seeded pretty well, too.

On the other hand, I think Smith is a real difference-maker for Whitefish Bay on those relays -- I'm not sure they get all three through to state (or certainly not in the seed positions they are in: two top seeds and a #7 seed) without her anchoring those. Smith historically has been a very good swimmer at the state meet, and she's clearly a better 50 free swimmer than in the 100 free. So I think it made sense to put her on all three relays.

Anonymous said...

I have been reading these comments for the past week and am wondering why SB/Sevastopol continues to revert back to the swimsuit issue last year. In reviewing their drops from sectionals to state, they just didn't have a very good taper. Perhaps we need to leave the suits behind once and for all and watch the taper from all the teams. That's what makes the coach good, can he/she actually pull it off.

Coach Ky said...

One of my swim coach mentors told me this....

Good Swim, Good Athlete. Bad Swim, Bad Coach! :)

Anonymous said...

So many of these postings have really been discussing the positive nature of the swimmer when the swimmer does well. Both the coach and the swimmer are acclaimed for their accomplishments. When a swimmer or a coach feels that the accomplishments do not reach the goals that they have established for themselves or their athlete, the new motto seems to be, "Good swim, good athlete...Bad swim, bad suit..."