D1 state meet preview

The D1 state meet is Saturday afternoon; here's hoping swim fans can find a parking space within a mile of the Natatorium to take in what should be a great meet. Here's a few things to look for:

-- Hartland Arrowhead is seeded to win the meet by 135 points; with all 16 of its swimmers qualified for the state meet, and two divers to boot, HA is a pretty sure bet to come away with its 7th title in eight years. This may not be the equal of Arrowhead's great 2003 and 2005 teams, but it is a very good and very deep squad. Last year, HA squeaked out a 16-point win over Madison East; its margin of victory Saturday is likely to be much higher.

-- The race for second looks quite close, with Muskego and Waukesha South/Mukwonago seeded within six points of each other for second place, Madison East seeded in 4th, and teams such as Wausau East, Eau Claire Memorial, Madison Memorial and Badger/Big Foot/Williams Bay looking to grab a piece of state hardware. It will be interesting to see if WS/M and Muskego can avoid last year's fate, when both teams dropped down for their seed positions and finished 4th and 5th, respectively. Relays of course will play a big role -- WS/M, Muskego and Madison Memorial qualified all three of their relays among the teams contending for 2nd.

-- Will youth be served? Only one senior -- Muskego's Brittany Walsh -- earned a top seed at the D1 state meet, and that was by the slimmest of margins (.01 seconds) over Madison East junior and defending champion Aja Van Hout. One thing I noticed while going over the heat sheets for the state meet -- this is a meet filled with a bunch of very good juniors.

-- How low can she go? Last year, Van Hout smashed the state record in the 500 free by more than five seconds, swimming a 4:48.60. The year before that, as a freshman, she won the 500 in 4:58.68 -- or 10 seconds slower than her sophomore time. Another prodigious time drop by Van Hout would bring into the conversation the national public high school record in the event -- 4:34.78, set last year by North Dakota native and Auburn recruit Dagny Knutson. Van Hout's winning time last year in the 200 IM (2:01.69) was nearly five seconds faster than her winning time as a freshman and within three-tenths of a second of the state record time set by Arrowhead's Andrea Boritzke. Can she break the magical 2-minute barrier in the IM, a feat reserved for very few high school swimmers? Van Hout's never lost an individual race at state; she's halfway toward accomplishing what only two swimmers in the history of the state have done -- win eight individual state titles.

-- Winning four gold medals is a rare accomplishment at a state meet. Can Arrowhead junior Emma Goral pull it off? She's seeded to do so -- Goral will swim on all three of Arrowhead's relays, all of which earned top seeds for the state meet. She's also seeded #1 in the 100 butterfly, an event she's won the past two years.

-- Can Madison Memorial senior Jackie Powell hold off the young guns coming after her in the 200 free? She's the defending champion in the event, having won it last year by a convincing 1.78 seconds. She'll tangle with sophomores Kayla Skenandore of WS/M ( who earned the top seed in the event) and Haley Pietila of Arrowhead (last year's runner-up), as well as rising freshman Natalie Neuwirth of Stevens Point, who has been swimming lights out the past two weeks.

-- Can Wisconsin Rapids junior Becca Weiland complete her comeback with a double win in the freestyle sprints? Weiland made a big splash at the D1 state meet two years ago with 3rd-place finishes in both the 50 and 100 frees. But a bad knee sidelined her last year from competing at sectionals. This year, she's back and has been the state's top sprinter all season long, earning top seeds at the state meet in the 50 and 100 frees. In the 100 free, she'll tangle with Arrowhead's Pietila and freshman Julia Mikota, who will bracket her in lanes 3 and 5. In the 50 free, Weiland will see a bunch of familiar faces -- conference rivals Lea Keonig and Lauren Sichterman from Wausau East earned the #2 and #3 seeds and will swim right next to Weiland.

-- The most highly anticipated race of the night probably comes in the second-to-last event -- the 100-yard breaststroke. Badger/Big Foot/Williams Bay senior Emily Russart hopes to capture her third state title in a row. Standing in her way is Eau Claire Memorial freshman Leah Pronschinske, who earned the meet's top seed (1:03.22 to Russart's 1:03.78). Pronschinske's debut at the state meet has been highly anticipated; she earned an Olympic Trials cut as an 8th grader. These two tangled in October at the Wisconsin Girls Invitational at the Natatorium; Russart won by .01 seconds. The rematch should be just as good.

-- Can anyone upend Arrowhead's top-seeded relays? Their 400 free relay looks to be the strongest of the three, with three of the top eight seeded swimmers in the 100 free, plus Goral, swimming on it. In the medley, Arrowhead has a seed time nearly two seconds faster than anyone else, but sitting right next to them in lanes 3 and 5 are the last two teams to win this event at state -- defending champs Badger/Big Foot/Williams Bay in lane 5, and Madison East in lane 3. East features two of the swimmers who helped the team win the relay in 2007 -- Becca Soderholm on fly and Ivy Martin anchoring -- plus the addition of Van Hout on breaststroke. It will be interesting to see how B/B/WB reacts after last week's sectional meet -- star butterflier Lindsey Mikrut was DQ'd from the meet for shaving on-site; sophomore Amie Zick replaced her on the fly leg and swam a tremendous leg to earn B/B/WB a #2 seed for the event. Mikrut can swim the relay, but won't be swimming any individual events at state. Will it serve as extra motivation to help defend her team's relay title? As for the 200 free relay, Arrowhead again owns a more-than-a-second seed-time advantage on the field. But Wausau East returns the entire line-up for the 200 free that finished a surprising second in this event last year at state. Wisconsin Rapids has the #3 seed in the event, and that means Weiland anchoring. If I was the anchor swimmer on any of the 200 free relays, I'd want to have a big lead before she jumped in the water.