Thursday, November 5, 2009

Digging into those psych sheets

More nuggets from the sectional psych sheets posted (and taken down, and then re-posted) by the WIAA this week (we crunch the numbers so you don't have to...):

Based on seed times, here's how the top 24 seed times break down by section, in Div. 1:

Middleton -- 65 swimmers/relays seeded to make state.
Waukesha South -- 56 swimmers and relays.
Neenah -- 46 swimmers and relays.
Hudson -- 36 swimmers and relays.
Kenosha -- 31 swimmers and relays.
Cedarburg -- 30 swimmers and relays.

Observation: Pretty much as expected, and similar to last year, when Middleton and Waukesha South sent large numbers of swimmers to state. The Cedarburg sectional is down from previous years, as traditionally strong teams like Mequon Homestead find themselves in a bit of a down cycle. The Neenah and Hudson sectionals, on the other hand, are on something of an upswing.

As for D2, here's how the top 16 seed times break down by section:

Baraboo -- 57 swimmers and relays.
Plymouth -- 52 swimmers and relays.
Cudahay -- 46 swimmers and relays.
Stevens Point -- 21 swimmers and relays.

Observation: Three pretty even sectionals, with the Point sectional that hosts most of the D2 teams from northern Wisconsin trailing the field. The Baraboo sectional, with the deepest field of seeded swimmers, should see quite the competition in the three relay events -- 18 relays (or an average of six teams per relay) are seeded to make it to state.

Deepest individual or relay events by seed time -- D1:

Middleton sectional: 200 medley relay -- 8 relays seeded to make state.
Waukesha South: 100 backstroke -- 8 swimmers.
Waukesha South: 200 free -- 7 swimmers.
Middleton: 200 IM -- 7 swimmers.
Neenah: 100 butterfly -- 7 swimmers.
Middleton: 500 free -- 7 swimmers.

Deepest individual or relay events by seed time -- D2:

Baraboo sectional: 200 medley relay -- 7 relays seeded to make state.
Baraboo: 100 butterfly -- 7 swimmers.
Plymouth: 500 free -- 7 swimmers.
Baraboo: 200 free -- 6 swimmers.
Cudahy: 50 free -- 6 swimmers.
Baraboo: 200 free relay -- 6 relays.
Cudahy: 100 breaststroke -- 6 swimmers.

Two other observations:

1) Based on seed times, there are a lot of fast freestyle sprinters in both divisions. The slowest (16th) time in the Div. 2 50 free seeded to make state (25.65) is already faster than last year's qualifying time for the event (25.91). The same holds true for the 200 free relay, which of course features four 50-yard sprinters (slowest seed time this year -- 1:45.17; last year's qualifying time -- 1:45.66.) In D1, the slowest time (24th) seeded to make the 50 free final (25.39) is only .25 seconds behind last year's qualifying time. There has been much speculation about how times at sectionals and state will compare to last year, when many swimmers wore the now-banned fast suits at both meets. It certainly looks like the shortest races this year may be faster overall than last year.

2) Div. 1 times have nearly always been faster than Div. 2 times, as the larger D1 teams have deeper pools of talent from which to draw. But D2 times seem to be creeping up on D1 times in a few areas. Notably, the final qualifying times seeded to make state in both D1 and D2 are remarkably close, and separated by only tenths of seconds, in a few events -- 200 medley relay, 50 free, and 400 free relay. Perhaps a sign that D2 teams are getting both better and deeper.

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