D1 and D2 meets seeded

Here's how the D1 state meet would turn out based solely on seed times (and for divers, seed scores) from this past weekend's sectional meets:

1) Hartland Arrowhead -- 329 points.
2) Muskego -- 194.
3) Waukesha South/Mukwonago -- 188.
4) Madison East -- 143.
5) Wausau East -- 119.
6) Eau Claire Memorial -- 111.
7) Madison Memorial -- 110.
8) Badger/Big Foot/Williams Bay -- 109.5.

Thoughts: As expected, Arrowhead came out of the sectional meets as the clear favorites for the state title. They are the only team with swimmers and divers in every event, and all three of their relays earned top seeds. A collective rash of false starts (or the aforementioned swine flu) seems to be the only potential roadblock between Arrowhead and its seventh title in eight years.

As for the rest of the seeding, it's eerily similar to last year, when Muskego and Waukesha South/Mukwonago came out of the very competitive and fast Waukesha South sectional as the two teams seeded behind Arrowhead, only to finish 4th (WS/M) and 5th (Muskego). Reasons for the move down vary; I've speculated about about one possible explanation here:

http://wiscswim.blogspot.com/2009/10/is-waukesha-south-pool-too-fast.html

Madison East as the 4th seed bears watching; few teams in D1 have tapered for the state meet as well as East the past two years. And four-time state champion Aja Van Hout is certainly a threat to post two wins and 40 points all by herself in the 200 IM and 500 free. But East only qualified two relays this year (medley and 400 free), and they are both seeded 3rd, so there is not a ton of room to capture more points there.

Meanwhile, Wausau East has all of its potential points wrapped up in four events -- the 200 and 400 free relays, and sprinters Lea Koenig and Lauren Sichterman in the 50 and 100 frees.

It's also worth noting that looming as the 7th seeded team is Madison Memorial (seeded at 110 points), which qualified all three relays and has entries in seven of the eight individual swimming events. A bunch of Memorial's swimmers are in the second heat, not the fastest one, so the Spartan swimmers will have to swim really well to move up. But coach Jason Verhelst has also proven to taper his swimmers well for the state meet.

D2

Here's the D2 state meet seeded:

1) Sturgeon Bay/Sevastopol -- 184 points.
2) DeForest -- 182.
3) Whitefish Bay -- 178.
4) Milton -- 157.
5) Shorewood -- 151.
6) Elkhorn -- 138.
7) Sauk Prairie -- 135.
8) Grafton -- 118.

Thoughts: Good golly, Miss Molly -- could this be any closer? The top three teams separated by six points, with the top five separated by only 33 points -- not that much in a state meet.

With such a close meet, the outcome will likely hinge on the relays, which of course are worth double the points of individual races. Any moves up or down from the relay seeding positions means a lot in a meet so tight (and especially so in this one, as the big moves up or down in the relays among the top five times will likely come at expense of each other).

Of the top five seeded teams, all qualified three relays for the meet. But here's where it gets interesting. Based on sectional performances, it looks like Sturgeon Bay/Sevastopol and Whitefish Bay have their relays set. In particular, Whitefish Bay coach Jim Davis' decision to put star sprinter Maggie Smith on three relays paid off, as the Blue Dukes' relays captured two top seeds (medley and 400 free) and a 7th seed (200 free relay).

But DeForest, Shorewood and Milton all could potentially move personnel around on their relays. DeForest's medley relay was the last one to get into the state meet, as coach Sue Winckler put her four fastest swimmers on the free relays. Those two relays each earned #2 seeds in the meet, and are filled with veteran state meet competitors who know how to perform under pressure. Shorewood spread out its relay swimmers to try to get three relays into the state meet, and it worked. But only one of those relays -- the medley -- qualified for the second, fast heat of the meet, and it will have to swim in lane 1. Shorewood's other two relays are seeded in the slower, first heats. It will be interesting to see how Shorewood coach Rob McCabe uses his top two swimmers -- Clare Chamberlain and Elli Sellinger -- in the relays. Meanwhile, Milton coach Tom Lieder has some unexpected flexibility with his relays, as freshman star Abby Holmquist -- seeded to make it to state in the 100 free -- just missed the cut-off time to qualify in the event. He could choose to put her on all three relays; Milton's relays are seeded 8th (medley), 5th (200), and 14th (400), so they have room to move up.