It what looks to be a very close contest, Waukesha South/Catholic Memorial is seeded three points ahead of Hartland Arrowhead going into Saturday's D1 state meet.
Here is the top 10, based strictly on seed times (with the obvious-but-needs-to-be-said caveat -- state meets are won in the water, not on spreadsheets):
Waukesha South/Catholic Memorial -- 214 points
Hartland Arrowhead -- 211
Madison Memorial -- 170
Bay Port -- 149
Eau Claire -- 134
Menomonee Falls/Germantown/Hamilton -- 132
Sauk Prairie/Wisconsin Heights -- 118
Brookfield Central/East -- 118
Verona/Mount Horeb -- 110
Appleton North/East -- 101
Analysis: Maybe this comes down to WS/CM's great distance swimmers against Arrowhead's amazing collection of backstrokers. WS/CM's three swimmers in the 200 and 500 frees -- Noah Potratz, Max Evans-Nolan, and Ryan Finke in the 200, and Potratz and Evans-Nolan in the 500 -- are seeded to score 60 points. HA's five backstrokers, led by Chris Jenkyns, are seeded to score 57. Of course, relays will play a huge role in sorting out the points between two teams -- both placed all three relays into the meet, with WS/CM holding a slight edge in overall seed points.
Can defending state champs Memorial make up the difference? Maybe. The relatively low seeded winning score (214), along with 10 teams seeded to score more than 100 points, suggests a very dispersed talent pool this year in D1. That could help Memorial, as top swimmers and relays from other top-10 seeded teams could squeeze in amid the WS/CM-Arrowhead battle. Memorial will certainly need another big day from senior Michael Drives -- he's seeded first or second in both of his individual events and the relays (200/400 free) he anchored Saturday. Watch for Memorial's medley relay early in the meet; seeded to score six points (14th seed), it could be a harbinger of good things for the Spartans if it can move up. Bay Port has very good relay strength seeded in the meet, but needs its individual entries to move up if the Pirates want to break into the top three at the meet.
D1 meet seeded here (ignore the heading that says "2009 girls state"; this is D1 boys state 2010)...
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8 comments:
I give the edge to Waukesha South in this meet for the following reasons. Many swimmers from both schools have not fully tapered for sectionals and will move up dramatically. Collin Neitzel, former state champion from south is currently ranked only fifth in the breast and ninth in the IM. He will almost certainly add twenty points onto their seedings. Arrowhead has a couple backstrokers ahead of Tyler Lentz, yet he is the favorite to win that event because of last years results taking helpful points from arrowhead. Should be a great meet though. Whoever wants it more will take it.
I agree with Pool Buoy. I think that it is about the taper. I know some of the swimmers, and they have told me that they will definetly do better at the state meet. This year was kind of slow for the South team. and I hear that they are ready come Saturday at the Nat.
Historically the sectional meet has been faster than the state meet for the Blackshirts (both boys and girls).
And, the Arrowhead backstrokers could move up if the three guys in the top four from the Marquette sectional rested for last week's meet. (I heard they were rested and shaved)
Experience performing and winning at the state meet definitely goes to Arrowhead.
Maximus, you only know some of the swimmers on your team?
That's a valid point anonymous, but I know some of the swimmers on south as well (but I am not a member like mr.nolan) and they are hungry. If arrowhead is not on their A-game they could be surprised. traditionally marquette's top guys have not had to shave and taper for their sectional due to the lack of talent surrounding them there.
While I appreciate the hunger and drive of the South team, I would imagine that Arrowhead shares the same drive and I cannot imagine they believe they're going to be handed the trophy until they've earned it, especially given the fact that they're going into the meet down 3 points (not a staggering deficit, but a deficit nonetheless).
...especially given the fact that they're going into the meet down 3 points (not a staggering deficit, but a deficit nonetheless).
Don't all teams start with zero points and then earn their points based on their performance? Swimmers that start in heat 1 have just as much chance as winning as those starting in heat 3.
It all comes down to who performs better in relation to the other swimmers on Saturday. And that's why we swim them...
Say whatever you want, but this will be one interesting meet. It is more enticing than the d2 meet because McFarland is far and away the favorites. However, this d1 meet will be fun to watch. I hope I can make it there.
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